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The missing step in the standard Keynesian theory [is] the explicit consideration of capitalist finance within a cyclical and speculative context . . . finance sets the pace for the economy. As recovery approaches full employment . . . soothsayers will proclaim that the business cycle has been banished [and] debts can be taken on . . . But in truth neither the boom, nor the debt deflation… and certainly not a recovery can go on forever. Each state nurtures forces that lead to its own destruction. So
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Hyman P. Minsky (John Maynard Keynes)
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They understood me. Not just the alcoholism, but the being I am who happens to have alcoholism. For that distinction alone, I am forever in their debt.
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Taiyu John Robertson (Transcending Hell, Manifesting a Zen Spiritual Path in Recovery from Addiction and Alcoholism)
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Life is too short to have debts and doubts,
Pay the bills, no regrets, be up and about.
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Ana Claudia Antunes (The Tao of Physical and Spiritual)
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When the tumult of war shall cease, and the tempest of present passions be succeeded by calm reflection, or when those, who, surviving its fury, shall inherit from you a legacy of debts and misfortunes, when the yearly revenue scarcely be able to discharge the interest of the one, and no possible remedy be left for the other, ideas far different from the present will arise, and embitter the remembrance of former follies. A mind disarmed of its rage feels no pleasure in contemplating a frantic quarrel. Sickness of thought, the sure consequence of conduct like yours, leaves no ability for enjoyment, no relish for resentment; and though, like a man in a fit, you feel not the injury of the struggle, nor distinguish between strength and disease, the weakness will nevertheless be proportioned to the violence, and the sense of pain increase with the recovery.
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Thomas Paine (The Crisis)
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Now few people recognize the necessary implications of the economic statements they are constantly making. When they say that the way to economic salvation is to increase credit, it is just as if they said that the way to economic salvation is to increase debt: these are different names for the same thing seen from opposite sides. When they say that the way to prosperity is to increase farm prices, it is like saying that the way to prosperity is to make food dearer for the city worker. When they say that the way to national wealth is to pay out governmental subsidies, they are in effect saying that the way to national wealth is to increase taxes. When they make it a main objective to increase exports, most of them do not realize that they necessarily make it a main objective ultimately to increase imports. When they say, under nearly all conditions, that the way to recovery is to increase wage rates, they have found only another way of saying that the way to recovery is to increase costs of production.
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Henry Hazlitt (Economics in One Lesson: The Shortest and Surest Way to Understand Basic Economics)
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My conclusions, on this point, are as follows: when the Law Commission says committal of judgment debtors is an anomaly that cannot be justified and should be abolished; when it is common cause that there is a general international move away from imprisonment for civil debt, of which the present committal proceedings are an adapted relic; when such imprisonment has been abolished in South Africa, save for its contested form as contempt of court in the magistrate's court; when the clauses concerned have already been interpreted by the Courts as restrictively as possible, without their constitutionally offensive core being eviscerated; when other tried and tested methods exist for recovery of debt from those in a position to pay; when the violation of the fundamental right to personal freedom is manifest, and the procedures used must inevitably possess a summary character if they are to be economically worthwhile to the creditor, then the very institution of civil imprisonment, however it may be described and however well directed its procedures might be, in itself must be regarded as highly questionable and not a compelling claimant for survival.
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Albie Sachs
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When they say that the way to economic salvation is to increase credit, it is just as if they said that the way to economic salvation is to increase debt: these are different names for the same thing seen from opposite sides. When they say that the way to prosperity is to increase farm prices, it is like saying that the way to prosperity is to make food dearer for the city worker. When they say that the way to national wealth is to pay out governmental subsidies, they are in effect saying that the way to national wealth is to increase taxes. When they make it a main objective to increase exports, most of them do not realize that they necessarily make it a main objective ultimately to increase imports. When they say, under nearly all conditions, that the way to recovery is to increase wage rates, they have found only another way of saying that the way to recovery is to increase costs of production.
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Henry Hazlitt (Economics in One Lesson: The Shortest and Surest Way to Understand Basic Economics)
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You all should feel excited. You have made history, although, unfortunately, not for a good reason, because the government has put policies in place that have so hammered small businesses that they have created a job market that makes life incredibly difficult for young people. The recession of the early 1980s was comparable but was followed by a rapid recovery. Well, gosh, what happened in the early 1980s? President Ronald Reagan was elected. He implemented policies the exact opposite of this administration's policies. Instead of jacking up taxes by $1.7 trillion, as this Congress and this President has done, President Reagan slashed taxes and simplified the Tax Code. Instead of exploding government spending and the debt, President Reagan restrained the growth of government spending. And instead of unleashing regulators like locusts that destroy small businesses, President Reagan restrained regulation and the result was incredible growth. For
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Ted Cruz (TED CRUZ: FOR GOD AND COUNTRY: Ted Cruz on ISIS, ISIL, Terrorism, Immigration, Obamacare, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Republicans,)
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Kana and Co is a highly reputable and ethical law firm in Singapore which offers comprehensive range of legal solutions for general legal matters to highly complex legal matters. The law firm specialises in civil & criminal litigation and all forms of contract legal matters. The law firm also specialises in complex debt recovery for Singapore and overseas investors.
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lawyersingapore
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Payments between countries which take the form of the transfer of goods and services, or still more of their fruitful exchange, are not only just but beneficial. Payments which are only the arbitrary, artificial transmission across the exchange of such very large sums as arise in war finance cannot fail to derange the whole process of world economy. This is equally true whether the payments are exacted from an ally who shared the victory and bore much of the brunt or from a defeated enemy nation. The enforcement of the Baldwin–Coolidge debt settlement is a recognisable factor in the economic collapse which was presently to overwhelm the world, to prevent its recovery and inflame its hatreds.
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Winston S. Churchill (The Gathering Storm: The Second World War, Volume 1 (Winston Churchill World War II Collection))
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Yes, a few lucky “short sleepers” are genetically inclined to thrive on only about four hours of shut-eye per night, but this condition is extremely rare.5 “Most of the time when someone says they only need five or six hours of sleep, what that means is that their ability to tolerate sleep deprivation is better than most,” says Meeta Singh, a sleep specialist at the Henry Ford sleep laboratory. “They’re actually walking around with sleep debt, and have forgotten what it feels like to be awake and alert.
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Christie Aschwanden (Good to Go: What the Athlete in All of Us Can Learn from the Strange Science of Recovery)
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Taking her cue from the points I had made, Christine seconded my appeals for debt relief and lower tax rates as prerequisites for a Greek recovery. Then she addressed me with calm and gentle honesty: You are of course right, Yanis. These targets that they insist on can’t work. But, you must understand that we have put too much into this programme. We cannot go back on it. Your credibility depends on accepting and working within this programme.2 So, there I had it. The head of the IMF was telling the finance minister of a bankrupt government that the policies imposed upon his country couldn’t work. Not that it would be hard to make them work. Not that the probability of them working was low. No, she was acknowledging that, come hell or high water, they couldn’t work. With
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Yanis Varoufakis (Adults in the Room: My Battle with Europe's Deep Establishment)
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The enforcement of the Baldwin-Coolidge debt settlement is a recognisable factor in the economic collapse which was presently to overwhelm the world, to prevent its recovery and inflame its hatreds.
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Winston S. Churchill (The Gathering Storm (Second World War))
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Nothing lasts for ever. This pain won't last. The pain tells you it will last. Pain lies. Ignore it. Pain is a debt paid off with time.
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Matt Haig (Reasons to Stay Alive)
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In a functional sense, we work to be able to consume, and in the relatively advanced, wealthy economy we enjoy, it is reasonable to expect a higher share of output to be devoted to our own wants and needs over physical capital and infrastructure. The state of the labor market plays a crucial role in determining spending behavior. When people consume, they make their decisions based on their expectations for future income: confident, spend away; not so confident, cut back. A tight labor market breeds confidence. If you’re in a job you might not have for long, or might not want for long, and you look around to find plentiful opportunities, you’re more likely to spend and possibly take on debt. One of the more interesting aspects of the recovery from the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009 was our caution.
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Thomas J. Cunningham (Understanding Economic Equilibrium: Making Your Way Through an Interdependent World)
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Consumers were wary of taking on debt after working it down during the recession and increased their spending only about as much as their incomes increased. This lack of a spending burst at the end of the recession earned the recovery its characterization, and criticism, as a “slow” recovery.
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Thomas J. Cunningham (Understanding Economic Equilibrium: Making Your Way Through an Interdependent World)
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Knowing your DUI attorney can eliminate the effect of the return of drunken
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DrunkFire
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The fundamental problem is that modern financial systems left to themselves inevitably create debt in excessive quantities, and in particular debt that does not fund new capital investment but rather the purchase of already existing assets, above all real estate. It is that debt creation which drives booms and financial busts: and it is the debt overhang left over by the boom that explains why recovery from the 2007–2008 financial crisis has been so anemic.
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Adair Turner (Between Debt and the Devil: Money, Credit, and Fixing Global Finance)
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Alexis Tsipras, the Syriza leader, has in recent weeks abandoned his pledge to “tear up” the country’s bailout agreement with international creditors and is emphasising more moderate steps to address Greece’s debt load as well as his deep commitment to the euro. Krishna Guha, of Evercore ISI, warned that — at a minimum — investors now faced “a four-week period of elevated uncertainty in which eurozone risk assets will struggle to perform”. Yet Mr Guha added: “We believe that Tsipras will prove more pragmatic than past Syriza rhetoric suggests. He has opened back channels to Berlin, Paris and Frankfurt, and has every incentive to try to negotiate relatively cosmetic changes to Greece’s programme and ride the early-stage Greek recovery rather than derail it.” Nick Wall, a portfolio manager at Invesco, also noted Mr Tsipras’ recent attempt to tack to the political centre. “They are going to need private sector investors, particularly if they are going to start running deficits again.
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Anonymous
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I do think we’re at a turning point. The question is how strong and permanent this recovery will be,” he noted. But while these external factors are helping Italy emerge from economic decline, others — mainly events in Greece and Ukraine — could spoil any momentum and plunge the eurozone’s third-largest economy back into the doldrums. “We are definitely concerned, I see all the elements for a moderate recovery [but] there are risks coming from a number of open issues in the world,” Mr Rossi said. Mr Rossi credited the European Central Bank’s recent decision to buy government debt — known as quantitative easing — with driving the likely Italian recovery, through a weaker euro, lower borrowing costs, higher confidence and portfolio shifts. He estimated it would add about 1 percentage point to Italian gross domestic product over the next two years, but this would be in line with the rest of the eurozone — offering “no special advantage to Italy”.
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Anonymous
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The Noah story in Genesis is not just about how God offered a path out of destruction, but about all that followed. The regeneration of human society meant a return to respecting limits, curbing the reckless pursuit of wealth and power, looking out for the poor and those living on the edges. The introduction of the Sabbath and the Jubilee—moments of recovery and reparation, forgiving debts and restoring relationships—were key to that regeneration, giving time for the earth to bounce back, for the poor to find fresh hope, for people to find their souls again.
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Pope Francis (Let Us Dream: The Path to a Better Future)
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By the end of 2008, however, the ingredients for a solid market recovery were in place. The over-levered funds that had received margin calls either raised additional capital, sold assets to de-lever as required, or liquidated. Funds and investment managers that received notices from investors desiring to withdraw at year-end either put up “gates” postponing withdrawals or completed the asset sales needed to meet them. The prices of debt securities reached a point where they implied yields so high that selling was unpalatable and buying became attractive. And, ultimately, market participants demonstrated that when negative psychology is universal and “things can’t get any worse,” they won’t. When all optimism has been driven out, and panicked risk aversion is everywhere, it becomes possible to reach a point where prices can’t go any lower. And when prices eventually stop going down, people tend to feel relief, and so the potential for a price recovery begins to arise.
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Howard Marks (Mastering The Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side)
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Since The Great Recession, the global financial crash of 2008-09, the debt-fuelled post-recession recovery has been the weakest in the post-war era (since the end of World War Two). Whereas total outstanding credit in the US after the Wall Street Crash grew from 160% to 260% of GDP between 1929 and 1932, the figure rose from 365% in 2008 to 540% in 2010. (And this does not include derivatives, whose nominal outstanding value is at least four times GDP).[34] A long depression and rising right-wing populism have followed, including the stunning ascendency of property tycoon and TV celebrity demagogue Donald Trump as the President of the US in 2016.[35] The British public’s vote in June 2016 to leave the EU delivered another shock of global significance. A chronic drift towards trade wars and protectionism is accelerating and in January 2018, US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis said that “great power competition, not terrorism, is now the primary focus of US national security”, putting Russia, China and – yes – Europe in the crosshairs of the world’s long-time dominant economic and military power. Adding to this age of anxiety is the accelerating automation revolution. What should be an emancipatory and utopian development only generates insecurity at the prospect of unprecedented mass unemployment. It can be no coincidence that all these crises are converging at exactly the same time. They cannot be explained away by cynical and shallow generalisations about ‘human nature’. In the course of this investigation we will see that in fact all of these crises have a common root cause: the decaying nature of capitalism and its tendency towards breakdown. Indeed, average Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates in the world’s richest countries have fallen in every decade since the 1960s and are clearly closing in on zero. Rates of profit, manufacturing costs and commodity prices are also trending towards zero. Drawing on Henryk Grossman’s vital clarification of Karl Marx’s methodology, we shall see that capitalism is heading inexorably towards a final, insurmountable breakdown that is destined to strike much earlier than a zero rate of profit. Indeed, we shall also see that the next, imminent economic crash will result in worldwide hyperinflation. We will also show that the economic crisis is intensifying competition between nation-states, forcing them into a situation which threatens the most destructive world war to date.
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Ted Reese (Socialism or Extinction: Climate, Automation and War in the Final Capitalist Breakdown)
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The starting point of the 2014 BIS report is the main theme of the present book: We are not in a typical cyclical downturn, but have reached the culmination of a long buildup of cycles. Each recovery since 1945 has added more debt, increasing carrying charges that divert spending away from current goods and services (debt deflation, as Chapter 8 has discussed).
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Michael Hudson (Killing the Host: How Financial Parasites and Debt Bondage Destroy the Global Economy)
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This experiment has now been performed many times on numerous species of birds and mammals, humans included. There are two clear outcomes. First, and of little surprise, sleep duration is far longer on the recovery night (ten or even twelve hours in humans) than during a standard night without prior deprivation (eight hours for us). Responding to the debt, we are essentially trying to “sleep it off,” the technical term for which is a sleep rebound. Second, NREM sleep rebounds harder. The brain will consume a larger portion of deep NREM sleep than of REM sleep on the first night after total sleep deprivation, expressing a lopsided hunger. Despite both sleep types being on offer at the finger buffet of recovery sleep, the brain opts to heap much more deep NREM sleep onto its plate. In the battle of importance, NREM sleep therefore wins. Or does it? Not quite. Should you keep recording sleep across a second, third, and even fourth recovery night, there’s a reversal. Now REM sleep becomes the primary dish of choice with each returning visit to the recovery buffet table, with a side of NREM sleep added. Both sleep stages are therefore essential.
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Matthew Walker (Why We Sleep: Unlocking the Power of Sleep and Dreams)
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with our fellow creatures. But the good news is that an Ark awaits us to carry us to a new tomorrow. Covid-19 is our Noah moment, as long as we can find our way to the Ark of the ties that unite us: of love, and of a common belonging. The Noah story in Genesis is not just about how God offered a path out of destruction, but about all that followed. The regeneration of human society meant a return to respecting limits, curbing the reckless pursuit of wealth and power, looking out for the poor and those living on the edges. The introduction of the Sabbath and the Jubilee—moments of recovery and reparation, forgiving debts and restoring relationships—were key to that regeneration, giving time for the earth to bounce back,
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Pope Francis (Let Us Dream: The Path to a Better Future)
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At Oaktree, we strongly reject the idea of waiting for the bottom to start buying. First, there’s absolutely no way to know when the bottom has been reached. There’s no neon sign that lights up. The bottom can be recognized only after it has been passed, since it is defined as the day before the recovery begins. By definition, this can be identified only after the fact. And second, it’s usually during market slides that you can buy the largest quantities of the thing you want, from sellers who are throwing in the towel and while the non-knife-catchers are hugging the sidelines. But once the slide has culminated in a bottom, by definition there are few sellers left to sell, and during the ensuing rally it’s buyers who predominate. Thus the selling dries up and would-be buyers face growing competition. We began to buy distressed debt immediately after Lehman filed for bankruptcy protection in mid-September 2008 as described on page 235, and we continued through year-end, as prices went lower and lower. By the first quarter of 2009, other investors had collected themselves, caught on to the values that were available, and gathered some capital for investment. But with the motivated sellers done selling and buying having begun, it was too late for them to buy in size without pushing up prices. Like so many other things in the investment world that might be tried on the basis of certitude and precision, waiting for the bottom to start buying is a great example of folly. So if targeting the bottom is wrong, when should you buy? The answer’s simple: when price is below intrinsic value. What if the price continues downward? Buy more, as now it’s probably an even greater bargain. All you need for ultimate success in this regard is (a) an estimate of intrinsic value, (b) the emotional fortitude to persevere, and (c) eventually to have your estimate of value proved correct.
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Howard Marks (Mastering The Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side)