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Influenced by strategic theories of the day—advanced most prominently by Harvard economist Thomas Schelling*—that conflicts were essentially bargaining situations, that one could signal an adversary that he should in his own interest avoid certain courses of activity, and that participants in a conflict coolly and rationally calculate costs and benefits and arrive at consistent expectations of each other, Taylor, McNamara, and Bundy had assumed bombing would be perceived by North Vietnam as limited and would be controllable—something that could be turned on and off like a faucet. “It’s something you can stop. It’s a bargaining chip,” McNamara would say of bombing—one that seemed to have the advantages of both flexibility and control.146 Taylor, McNamara, and Bundy thought bombing would not last long, perhaps a few months at most. They made the cardinal error of assuming that the North Vietnamese agreed with them. They did not contemplate what would happen if Hanoi did not perceive bombing as a limited gesture and proved willing to absorb its costs because they did not believe bombing would fail, making such considerations moot. They might not have agreed on when to start a bombing campaign, but nobody doubted it would work. None of them foresaw that bombing would instead feed demands for greater military action, that it would be only the first step in what would become a massive American military effort in Vietnam.
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Brian Van DeMark (Road To Disaster: A New History of America's Descent into Vietnam)