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Stanley Druckenmiller observed that huge and well-timed gambles were the essence of Soros's genius. Soros was right about the market's direction no more than other traders. What distinguished him was that when he felt a truly strong conviction, he acted on it more courageously. Likewise, Thiel had the guts to act on his understanding of the power law by betting big at the right moments. Because only a handful of startups would grow exponentially, there was no point getting excited about opportunities that seemed merely solid; in venture, the median investment was a failure. But when he encountered a potential grand slam, Thiel was ready to pile his chips onto the table.
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