Replication Crisis Quotes

[[ ]] The story goes like this: Earth is captured by a technocapital singularity as renaissance rationalization and oceanic navigation lock into commoditization take-off. Logistically accelerating techno-economic interactivity crumbles social order in auto sophisticating machine runaway. As markets learn to manufacture intelligence, politics modernizes, upgrades paranoia, and tries to get a grip. The body count climbs through a series of globewars. Emergent Planetary Commercium trashes the Holy Roman Empire, the Napoleonic Continental System, the Second and Third Reich, and the Soviet International, cranking-up world disorder through compressing phases. Deregulation and the state arms-race each other into cyberspace. By the time soft-engineering slithers out of its box into yours, human security is lurching into crisis. Cloning, lateral genodata transfer, transversal replication, and cyberotics, flood in amongst a relapse onto bacterial sex. Neo-China arrives from the future. Hypersynthetic drugs click into digital voodoo. Retro-disease. Nanospasm.

we’ve been redefining what it means to be human. Over the past 60 years, as mechanical processes have replicated behaviors and talents we thought were unique to humans, we’ve had to change our minds about what sets us apart. As we invent more species of AI, we will be forced to surrender more of what is supposedly unique about humans. Each step of surrender—we are not the only mind that can play chess, fly a plane, make music, or invent a mathematical law—will be painful and sad. We’ll spend the next three decades—indeed, perhaps the next century—in a permanent identity crisis, continually asking ourselves what humans are good for. If we aren’t unique toolmakers, or artists, or moral ethicists, then what, if anything, makes us special? In the grandest irony of all, the greatest benefit of an everyday, utilitarian AI will not be increased productivity or an economics of abundance or a new way of doing science—although all those will happen. The greatest benefit of the arrival of artificial intelligence is that AIs will help define humanity. We need AIs to tell us who we are.

A giant virus named the Mamavirus, which was discovered infecting amoebae that live in a water-cooling tower in Paris, gets infected by a small virus called the Sputnik. A Mamavirus particle with Sputnik disease is one sick virus—deformed and unable to replicate very well.

I’m being diplomatic. Many readers will know of the “replication crisis” in psychology, where an alarming percentage of published findings, even some in textbooks, turn out to be hard or impossible for other scientists to independently replicate (including some findings, I admit ruefully, that wound up being cited in my 2017 book, where I should have been more discerning). Thus, this section considers only findings whose broad conclusions have been independently replicated.

The problems of our community hit close to home. Mom’s struggles weren’t some isolated incident. They were replicated, replayed, and relived by many of the people who, like us, had moved hundreds of miles in search of a better life. There was no end in sight. Mamaw had thought she escaped the poverty of the hills, but the poverty—emotional, if not financial—had followed her.

In many life sciences, including psychology, discovery isn’t a black-and-white issue; it is matter of determining, from one experiment to the next, the theoretical contribution made by various shades of gray. When psychologists set arbitrary criteria (p<.05) on the precise shade of gray required to achieve publication—and hence career success—they also incentivize a host of conscious and unconscious strategies to cross that threshold. In the battle between science and storytelling, there is simply no competition: storytelling wins every time.

SUSAN’S STORY OF cascading loss and downward mobility has been replicated millions of times across the American landscape due to the financial industry’s actions in the 2000s. While the country’s GDP and employment numbers rebounded before the pandemic struck another blow, the damage at the household level has been permanent. Of families who lost their houses through dire events such as job loss or foreclosure, over two-thirds will probably never own a home again. Because of our globally interconnected economy, the Great Recession altered lives in every country in the world. And all of it was preventable, if only we had paid attention earlier to the financial fires burning through Black and brown communities across the nation. Instead, the predatory practices were allowed to continue until the disaster had engulfed white communities, too—and only then, far too late, was it recognized as an emergency. There is no question that the financial crisis hurt people of color first and worst. And yet the majority of the people it damaged were white. This is the dynamic we’ve seen over and over again throughout our country’s history,

The virosphere permeates the earth’s atmosphere, which is filled with viruses blowing in the wind. Around ten million virus particles land on every square meter of the earth each day, drifting down from the air. Viruses saturate the soil and the sea. A liter of seawater contains more virus particles than any other form of life. Viruses exist in vast numbers in the human gut, infecting all of the four thousand different kinds of bacteria that live naturally in a person’s intestines. Viruses can sometimes infect other viruses. A giant virus named the Mamavirus, which was discovered infecting amoebae that live in a water-cooling tower in Paris, gets infected by a small virus called the Sputnik. A Mamavirus particle with Sputnik disease is one sick virus—deformed and unable to replicate very well.

Schnall’s strong reaction to the failed replication of her own work provoked a mixed reaction from the psychological community. While many psychologists were bewildered by her response, a number of prominent US psychologists voiced support for her position. Dan Gilbert from Harvard University likened Schnall’s battle to the plight of Rosa Parks, and he referred to some psychologists who conducted or supported replications as “bullies,” “replication police,” “second stringers,” McCarthyists, and “god’s chosen soldiers in a great jihad.” Others accused the so-called replicators of being “Nazis,” “fascists,” and “mafia.” Rather than viewing replication as an intrinsic part of best scientific practice, Gilbert and his supporters framed it as a threat to the reputation of the (presumably brilliant) researchers who publish irreproducible findings, stifling their creativity and innovation

...the centrality of competitiveness as the key to growth is a recurrent EU motif. Two decades of EC directives on increasing competition in every area, from telecommunications to power generation to collateralizing wholesale funding markets for banks, all bear the same ordoliberal imprint. Similarly, the consistent focus on the periphery states’ loss of competitiveness and the need for deep wage and cost reductions therein, while the role of surplus countries in generating the crisis is utterly ignored, speaks to a deeply ordoliberal understanding of economic management. Savers, after all, cannot be sinners. Similarly, the most recent German innovation of a constitutional debt brake (Schuldenbremse) for all EU countries regardless of their business cycles or structural positions, coupled with a new rules-based fiscal treaty as the solution to the crisis, is simply an ever-tighter ordo by another name. If states have broken the rules, the only possible policy is a diet of strict austerity to bring them back into conformity with the rules, plus automatic sanctions for those who cannot stay within the rules. There are no fallacies of composition, only good and bad policies. And since states, from an ordoliberal viewpoint, cannot be relied upon to provide the necessary austerity because they are prone to capture, we must have rules and an independent monetary authority to ensure that states conform to the ordo imperative; hence, the ECB. Then, and only then, will growth return. In the case of Greece and Italy in 2011, if that meant deposing a few democratically elected governments, then so be it. The most remarkable thing about this ordoliberalization of Europe is how it replicates the same error often attributed to the Anglo-American economies: the insistence that all developing states follow their liberal instruction sheets to get rich, the so-called Washington Consensus approach to development that we shall discuss shortly. The basic objection made by late-developing states, such as the countries of East Asia, to the Washington Consensus/Anglo-American idea “liberalize and then growth follows” was twofold. First, this understanding mistakes the outcomes of growth, stable public finances, low inflation, cost competitiveness, and so on, for the causes of growth. Second, the liberal path to growth only makes sense if you are an early developer, since you have no competitors—pace the United Kingdom in the eighteenth century and the United States in the nineteenth century. Yet in the contemporary world, development is almost always state led.

More generally, it is widely recognized that there is a crisis in the field of biomedicine, characterized by a “culture of hyper-competitiveness.” In this environment, scientists may feel the need to overstate the importance of their work in order to attract attention and obtain funding. Other symptoms of this climate are a “lack of transparent reporting of results” and an increasing frequency of published results that cannot be replicated.8

If we take a science such as experimental physics, where studies tend to have high statistical power, methods are well defined and de facto preregistered, then the failure to reproduce a previous result is considered a major cause for concern. But in a weaker science where lax statistical standards and questionable research practices are the norm, attempts to reproduce prior work will often fail, and it should therefore come as no surprise that retraction is rare.

Our institutions, if they choose to, can learn a lot from the grounded, service-oriented kind of harm reduction embodied in the work being done right now by the people in this book and by so many like them. But, their work is simply not sustainable. Individuals, no matter how inspiring or selfless cannot solve a systemic problem without sustained institutional, governmental support that replicates their heroic innovations.

Reproducibility is not a binary condition: a scientific report may not be all right or all wrong. One part of a multipart report may not replicate, while other parts do. Or a replicated result might match the original result qualitatively though not quantitatively, as was the case in many of the RPP experiments. It is often hard to classify reports as “reproducible” or “irreproducible.

A scientist acquaintance once explained to me that to attain nuclear fusion—which would apparently solve the global energy crisis—you have to replicate exactly the conditions of the birth of a star. This is obviously very hard, and very rare, and very fleeting. And I realized, in the Shahids’ living room, that I’d fallen in love not only with a particular configuration of people, but with that particular configuration in a particular moment in their lives and in mine. It wouldn’t have mattered if I were myself Peter Pan, ever unaltered: the minute Wendy starts to change, the idyll is over. Each of them was different, even though they were much the same. Their configuration was different. You couldn’t replicate what had been.

1. Data show the CO2 level rose to 410 ppm by 2020, an increase of 130 ppm. 2. The IPCC assumes its core theory is true, which forces the conclusion that human CO2 caused all the increase above 280 ppm. 3. IPCC agrees that human CO2 emissions are less than 5 percent of natural CO2 emissions. 4. How can less that 5 percent of all CO2 emissions cause 32 percent of the CO2 in the atmosphere? Answer: It can’t. 8.2 Multiple lines of evidence prove IPCC’s core theory is wrong. 1. Ice core data prove natural CO2 caused the CO2 increase. 2. Direct CO2 data prove CO2 was much higher than 280 ppm before 1750. 3. Leaf stomata data prove CO2 was much higher than 280 ppm before 1750. 4. Statistics prove human CO2 is not the primary cause of the increase in CO2. 5. IPCC’s human carbon cycle is not consistent with its own natural carbon cycle. This is a basic physics error. 6. Inspection shows IPCC’s human carbon cycle is based on IPCC’s invalid assumption that its core theory is true. 8.3 A simple physics carbon cycle model replicates IPCC’s data for its natural carbon cycle. 1. This model easily calculates the true human carbon cycle that is compatible with IPCC’s natural carbon cycle. 2. The true human carbon cycle shows human CO2 has

the philanthropic NGO has long been decried by the left as a means of addressing only the symptoms of poverty and thus obscuring the political strategies needed to overcome it. NGOs are criticised for creating Potemkin villages not replicable at scale. their limits are often painfully apparent. some are ‘briefcase’ NGOs, to give their founders income or profit.

In his book Gay, Inc.: The Nonprofitization of Queer Politics, Myrl Beam tells the story of a Minneapolis group founded by queer and trans youth to support their community. As the group formalized and got funding, it diverged from its initial mission and commitment to youth governance and became dominated by adults. The group began to work with the local police to check warrants for youth who came to the drop-in space. This functionally excluded criminalized youth—disproportionately youth of color—from the space and endangered people who came seeking help, turning what had been a mutual aid group into an extension of the local police department. When mutual aid projects make more stigmatized people ineligible for what they are offering, they replicate the charity model.

If the altered demographic profile of the two parties in the 2016 election—almost perfectly replicated in the 2018, 2020, and 2022 elections—is signaling America’s newest political realignment, it would be the first since the Nixon-Reagan elections of 1968 to 1980, roughly forty to fifty years earlier. By Walter Dean Burnham’s count (as we saw in Chapter 4), that would suggest America is now moving into its seventh party system.

philosophers of science from Francis Bacon to Karl Popper had argued that a quintessential prerequisite for a scientific finding to be valid resides in its reproducibility (i.e., the ability of other scientists to replicate it)

«There’s something about the comfort of a hug from someone close to you that can’t be replicated by anything else».

I argued that the Fed offered a unique mix of expertise and experience that couldn’t be replicated soon, if ever, at a new financial stability agency.

Consciousness is a power which undervalues most of us. Typically, even in the most painful moments of crisis, we do not center our inner consciousness or use its real power. That may clarify why "miracle" remedies are greeted with a combination of wonder, skepticism and respect. Yet all have consciousness. Such miracles are perhaps variations to natural ability. If your body mends a fractured bone, why isn't that a miracle? It is definitely complicated, far too difficult for medicine to replicate as a healing process; it requires an incredible number of perfectly synchronized processes, of which medicine recognizes only the major ones and those that are incomplete.