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If appointing a devil’s advocate is not possible, there are other ways a wise person can “widen the keyhole” and avoid distorting lenses and filters. When it comes to making consequential decisions, for example, you can compare how you think about the pros and cons right now with how you imagine you’ll think about them ten years from now. Or you might consider what you’d recommend for a friend or what you think someone you respect would recommend. As we saw in chapter 3, you can shed light on the best product, proposal, or person to select by turning the question around and also asking which is the right one to reject. Some decision analysts recommend conducting a “premortem,” that is, assume that a decision has gone horribly wrong and ask yourself what information you’d want to gather to find out why.18 Get that information now.
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Thomas Gilovich (The Wisest One in the Room: How You Can Benefit from Social Psychology's Most Powerful Insights)