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April 2016, oil ministers representing about half of world production were converging on the Sheraton Hotel in Doha, the capital of Qatar. They had pretty much concluded a plan to freeze production—to hold output steady in order to stem the rising tide of inventories and buy some time to catch up. But one country was notably absent—Iran. Determined to ramp up its output, it would never agree to be part of a freeze. Still, Naimi had achieved the goal he had insisted on since 2014—Russian acquiescence to some kind of output restriction. But in the night, a call came in from Saudi Arabia. The message to Naimi was clear—no agreement without Iran. And Iran clearly would not participate. The deal was off. In Doha, the others were astonished by this overnight reversal, after all the effort. But facts were facts.
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