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There is no way of knowing, but history can supply clues, and there was one historical comparison that immediately presented itself to Kissinger the European, the pessimist, the worrier who bit his fingernails down to the quick. The example of Russia in 1917 was never far from his thinking. From February 1917 to October 1917, Russia was ruled by a moderate revolutionary and democrat, Alexander Kerensky. But in the turmoil of war and upheaval he was unable to maintain power against the more radical Leninists with their simple answers to complex questions. He was overthrown and Europe, not to mention the rest of the world, was upended for the next 70 years. Every revolution, in Kissinger’s view, tossed up its Kerenskys—sane, reasonable, well-meaning idealists with no grasp of the realities of power. For them, good intentions were a substitute for weapons (whereas hard-headed Marxists from Regis Debray to Mao Zedong believed power came out of the barrel of a gun). Inevitably, they ended up being devoured.
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