β
When you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.
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Arthur Conan Doyle (The Case-Book of Sherlock Holmes (Sherlock Holmes, #9))
β
When people say impossible, they usually mean improbable.
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Leigh Bardugo (Siege and Storm (The Shadow and Bone Trilogy, #2))
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I want to think again of dangerous and noble things.
I want to be light and frolicsome.
I want to be improbable beautiful and afraid of nothing,
as though I had wings.
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Mary Oliver (Owls and Other Fantasies: Poems and Essays)
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Youβre a storyteller. Dream up something wild and improbable," she pleaded. "Something beautiful and full of monsters."
βBeautiful and full of monsters?"
βAll the best stories are.
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Laini Taylor (Strange the Dreamer (Strange the Dreamer, #1))
β
If I could believe in myself, why not give other improbabilities the benefit of the doubt?
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David Sedaris (Holidays on Ice)
β
How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?
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Arthur Conan Doyle (The Sign of Four (Sherlock Holmes, #2))
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The impossible often has a kind of integrity to it which the merely improbable lacks.
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Douglas Adams (The Long Dark Tea-Time of the Soul (Dirk Gently, #2))
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Not one of your pertinent ancestors was squashed, devoured, drowned, starved, stranded, stuck fast, untimely wounded, or otherwise deflected from its life's quest of delivering a tiny charge of genetic material to the right partner at the right moment in order to perpetuate the only possible sequence of hereditary combinations that could result -- eventually, astoundingly, and all too briefly -- in you.
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Bill Bryson (A Short History of Nearly Everything)
β
Miracles are statistical improbabilities. And fate is an illusion humanity uses to comfort itself in the dark. There are no absolutes in life, save death.
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Amie Kaufman (Illuminae (The Illuminae Files, #1))
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Now it is such a bizarrely improbable coincidence that anything so mind-bogglingly useful could have evolved purely by chance that some thinkers have chosen to see it as the final and clinching proof of the non-existence of God.
The argument goes something like this: "I refuse to prove that I exist,'" says God, "for proof denies faith, and without faith I am nothing."
"But," says Man, "The Babel fish is a dead giveaway, isn't it? It could not have evolved by chance. It proves you exist, and so therefore, by your own arguments, you don't. QED."
"Oh dear," says God, "I hadn't thought of that," and promptly vanishes in a puff of logic.
"Oh, that was easy," says Man, and for an encore goes on to prove that black is white and gets himself killed on the next zebra crossing.
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Douglas Adams (The Hitchhikerβs Guide to the Galaxy (Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, #1))
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So many of our dreams at first seem impossible, then they seem improbable, and then, when we summon the will, they soon become inevitable.
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Christopher Reeve
β
One should always be a little improbable.
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Oscar Wilde
β
Before I go on with this short history, let me make a general observationβ the test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.
One should, for example, be able to see that things are hopeless and yet be determined to make them otherwise. This philosophy fitted on to my early adult life, when I saw the improbable, the implausible, often the "impossible," come true.
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F. Scott Fitzgerald (The Crack-Up)
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Missing a train is only painful if you run after it! Likewise, not matching the idea of success others expect from you is only painful if thatβs what you are seeking.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
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Sherlock Holmes observed that once you have eliminated the impossible then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the answer. I, however, do not like to eliminate the impossible.
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Douglas Adams (Dirk Gently's Holistic Detective Agency (Dirk Gently, #1))
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He had wanted her for so long that it seemed impossible he should actually have her beside him every day, that he might lay down beside her every night. Not impossible, he supposed. Just improbable.
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Leigh Bardugo (Rule of Wolves (King of Scars, #2))
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Faith may be defined briefly as an illogical belief in the occurrence of the improbable.
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H.L. Mencken (Prejudices: Third Series)
β
I am, and always will be, the optimist. The hoper of far-flung hopes, and the dreamer of improbable dreams.
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β
Eleventh Doctor
β
Science fiction deals with improbable possibilities, fantasy with plausible impossibilities.
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Miriam Allen deFord
β
Now produce your explanation and pray make it improbable.
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Oscar Wilde (The Importance of Being Earnest)
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There's no such thing as im-POSSIBLE, Hiccup, only im-PROBABLE. The only thing that limits us are the limits to our imagination
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Cressida Cowell (How to Cheat a Dragon's Curse (How to Train Your Dragon, #4))
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When you develop your opinions on the basis of weak evidence, you will have difficulty interpreting subsequent information that contradicts these opinions, even if this new information is obviously more accurate.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
β
The idea was fantastically, wildly improbable. But like most fantastically, wildly improbable ideas it was at least as worthy of consideration as a more mundane one to which the facts had been strenuously bent to fit.
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Douglas Adams (The Long Dark Tea-Time of the Soul (Dirk Gently, #2))
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His very existence was improbable, inexplicable, and altogether bewildering. He was an insoluble problem. It was inconceivable how he had existed, how he had succeeded in getting so far, how he had managed to remain -- why he did not instantly disappear.
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Joseph Conrad (Heart of Darkness)
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Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.β - Sherlock Homes
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Arthur Conan Doyle
β
It has been more profitable for us to bind together in the wrong direction than to be alone in the right one. Those who have followed the assertive idiot rather than the introspective wise person have passed us some of their genes. This is apparent from a social pathology: psychopaths rally followers.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
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Fantasy is the impossible made probable. Science Fiction is the improbable made possible.
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Rod Serling
β
With respect to the requirement of art, the probable impossible is always preferable to the improbable possible.
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Aristotle (Poetics)
β
When people say impossible, they usually mean improbable." With the moonlight gleaming off the lenses of his goggles and with his greatcoat billowing around him, he looked like a complete madman.
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Leigh Bardugo (Siege and Storm (The Shadow and Bone Trilogy, #2))
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Thermodynamic miracles... events with odds against so astronomical they're effectively impossible, like oxygen spontaneously becoming gold. I long to observe such a thing.
And yet, in each human coupling, a thousand million sperm vie for a single egg. Multiply those odds by countless generations, against the odds of your ancestors being alive; meeting; siring this precise son; that exact daughter... Until your mother loves a man she has every reason to hate, and of that union, of the thousand million children competing for fertilization, it was you, only you, that emerged. To distill so specific a form from that chaos of improbability, like turning air to gold... that is the crowning unlikelihood. The thermodynamic miracle.
But...if me, my birth, if that's a thermodynamic miracle... I mean, you could say that about anybody in the world!.
Yes. Anybody in the world. ..But the world is so full of people, so crowded with these miracles that they become commonplace and we forget... I forget. We gaze continually at the world and it grows dull in our perceptions. Yet seen from the another's vantage point. As if new, it may still take our breath away. Come...dry your eyes. For you are life, rarer than a quark and unpredictable beyond the dreams of Heisenberg; the clay in which the forces that shape all things leave their fingerprints most clearly. Dry your eyes... and let's go home.
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Alan Moore (Watchmen)
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....maybe fear is God's way of saying, "Pay attention, this could be fun.
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Craig Ferguson (American on Purpose: The Improbable Adventures of an Unlikely Patriot)
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Wishful thinking and voluntary daydreaming can occasionally make dreams come true. Unrealistic projects, improbable ventures and unfeasible missions can sometimes be achieved through 'conscious dreaming'. At times, dreams can be an inspiration and generate creative reflections.
(<"Lost dreams")
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Erik Pevernagie
β
I think when you become a parent you go from being a star in the movie of your own life to the supporting player in the movie of someone else's.
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Craig Ferguson (American on Purpose: The Improbable Adventures of an Unlikely Patriot)
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Remember that you are a Black Swan.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
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I didn't say no because between safety and adventure I choose adventure.
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Craig Ferguson (American on Purpose: The Improbable Adventures of an Unlikely Patriot)
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It is my great hope someday, to see science and decision makers rediscover what the ancients have always known. Namely that our highest currency is respect.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
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The problem with experts is that they do not know what they do not know
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β
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
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Miracles are statistical improbabilities.
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Amie Kaufman (Obsidio (The Illuminae Files, #3))
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I have never understood why people who can swallow the enormous improbability of a personal God boggle at a personal Devil.
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Graham Greene
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The essence of life is statistical improbability on a colossal scale.
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Richard Dawkins
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I have never been one of those peopleβI know you arenβt, eitherβwho feels that the love one has for a child is somehow a superior love, one more meaningful, more significant, and grander than any other. I didnβt feel that before Jacob, and I didnβt feel that after. But it is a singular love, because it is a love whose foundation is not physical attraction, or pleasure, or intellect, but fear. You have never known fear until you have a child, and maybe that is what tricks us into thinking that it is more magnificent, because the fear itself is more magnificent. Every day, your first thought is not βI love himβ but βHow is he?β The world, overnight, rearranges itself into an obstacle course of terrors. I would hold him in my arms and wait to cross the street and would think how absurd it was that my child, that any child, could expect to survive this life. It seemed as improbable as the survival of one of those late-spring butterfliesβyou know, those little white onesβI sometimes saw wobbling through the air, always just millimeters away from smacking itself against a windshield.
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Hanya Yanagihara (A Little Life)
β
For however inhospitable the wind, from this vantage point Manhattan was simply so improbable, so wonderful, so obviously full of promise - that you wanted to approach it for the rest of your life without ever quite arriving.
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β
Amor Towles (Rules of Civility)
β
You imagine the carefully pruned, shaped thing that is presented to you is truth. That is just what it isn't. The truth is improbable, the truth is fantastic; it's in what you think is a distorting mirror that you see the truth.
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β
Jean Rhys (Good Morning, Midnight)
β
Do you believe in the mystical, the fantastical, the improbable, or the impossible? Do you believe that things others dismiss as dreams and imagination actually exist? Do you believe in fairy tales?
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β
Erin Morgenstern (The Starless Sea)
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Alcohol ruined me financially and morally, broke my heart and the hearts of too many others. Even though it did this to me and it almost killed me and I haven't touched a drop of it in seventeen years, sometimes I wonder if I could get away with drinking some now. I totally subscribe to the notion that alcoholism is a mental illness because thinking like that is clearly insane.
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β
Craig Ferguson (American on Purpose: The Improbable Adventures of an Unlikely Patriot)
β
The writer Umberto Eco belongs to that small class of scholars who are encyclopedic, insightful, and nondull. He is the owner of a large personal library (containing thirty thousand books), and separates visitors into two categories: those who react with βWow! Signore, professore dottore Eco, what a library you have ! How many of these books have you read?β and the others - a very small minority - who get the point that a private library is not an ego-boosting appendage but a research tool. Read books are far less valuable than unread ones. The library should contain as much of what you donβt know as your financial means, mortgage rates and the currently tight real-estate market allows you to put there. You will accumulate more knowledge and more books as you grow older, and the growing number of unread books on the shelves will look at you menancingly. Indeed, the more you know, the larger the rows of unread books. Let us call this collection of unread books an antilibrary.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
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We tend to use knowledge as therapy.
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β
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
β
Whether I or anyone else accepted the concept of alcoholism as a disease didn't matter; what mattered was that when treated as a disease, those who suffered from it were most likely to recover.
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β
Craig Ferguson (American on Purpose: The Improbable Adventures of an Unlikely Patriot)
β
If you hear a "prominent" economist using the word 'equilibrium,' or 'normal distribution,' do not argue with him; just ignore him, or try to put a rat down his shirt.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
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Ideas come and go, stories stay.
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β
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
β
The complexity of the simplest known type of cell is so great that it is impossible to accept that such an object could have been thrown together suddenly by some kind of freakish, vastly improbable, event. Such an occurrence would be indistinguishable from a miracle.
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Michael Denton (Evolution: A Theory in Crisis)
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Someone once asked me what I thought horror fiction did. What its purpose was . . . I replied that when I wrote horror fiction, I tried to take the improbable, the unimaginable, and the impossible, and make it seem not only possible--but inevitable.
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β
Michael McDowell
β
If God existed (a question concerning which Jubal maintained a meticulous intellectual neutrality) and if He desired to be worshiped (a proposition which Jubal found inherently improbable but conceivably possible in the dim light of his own ignorance), then (stipulating affirmatively both the above) it nevertheless seemed wildly unlikely to Jubal to the point of reductio ad absurdum that a God potent to shape galaxies would be titillated and swayed by the whoop-te-do nonsense the Fosterites offered Him as "worship.
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β
Robert A. Heinlein (Stranger in a Strange Land)
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Well," Peter Van Houten said, extending his hand to me. "It is at any rate a pleasure to meet such ontologically improbable creatures." I shook his swollen hand, and then he shook hands with Augustus. I was wondering what ontologically meant. Regardless, I liked it. Augustus and I were together in the Improbable Creatures Club: us and duck-billed platypuses.
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John Green (The Fault in Our Stars)
β
He will know from and early age that failure is not disgrace. It's just a pitch that you missed, and you'd better get ready for the next one. The next one might be the shot heard round the world. My son and I are Americans, we prepare for glory by failing until we don't.
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β
Craig Ferguson (American on Purpose: The Improbable Adventures of an Unlikely Patriot)
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I will repeat the following until I am hoarse: it is contagion that determines the fate of a theory in social science, not its validity.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
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How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?
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Arthur Conan Doyle (The Sign Of Four)
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Read books are far less valuable than unread ones. The library should contain as much of what you do not know as your financial means, mortgage rates, and the currently tight real-estate market alow you to put there.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
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What care I if it be "wild and improbable" and "lacking in literary art"? I refuse to be any longer hampered by such canons of criticism. The one essential thing I demand of a book is that it should interest me. If it does, I forgive it every other fault.
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L.M. Montgomery (The Selected Journals of L.M. Montgomery, Vol. 1: 1889-1910)
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In a calm, clear voice, she suggested that the wyrsa in question could do several highly improbable, athletically difficult and possibly biologically impractical things involving its own mother, a few household implements, and a dead fish.
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Mercedes Lackey (The Silver Gryphon (Mage Wars, #3))
β
When two humans have lived together for many years it usually happens that each has tones of voice and expressions of face which are almost unendurably irritating to the other. Work on that. Bring fully into the consciousness of your patient that particular lift of his mother's eyebrows which he learned to dislike in the nursery, and let him think how much he dislikes it. Let him assume that she knows how annoying it is and does it to annoy - if you know your job he will not notice the immense improbability of the assumption. And, of course, never let him suspect that he has tones and looks which similarly annoy her. As he cannot see or hear himself, this easily managed.
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C.S. Lewis (The Screwtape Letters)
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Something he knew he had missed: the flower of life. But he thought of it now as a thing so unattainable and improbable that to have repined would have been like despairing because one had not drawn the first prize in a lottery.
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Edith Wharton (The Age of Innocence)
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The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
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I've lived so little that I tend to imagine I'm not going to die; it seems improbable
that human existence can be reduced to so little; one imagines, in spite of oneself,
that sooner or later something is bound to happen. A big mistake. A life can just as
well be both empty and short. The days slip by indifferently, leaving neither trace nor
memory; and then all of a sudden they stop.
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β
Michel Houellebecq (Whatever)
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Categorizing is necessary for humans, but it becomes pathological when the category is seen as definitive, preventing people from considering the fuzziness of boundaries,
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
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She gave him a wan smile. "And then you came, Eragon. You and Saphira. After hope had deserted me and I was about to be taken to Galbatorix in Uru'baen, a Rider appeared to rescue me. A rider and a dragon!"
"And Morzan's son," he said. "Both of Morzan's sons."
"Describe it how you will, it was such an improbable rescue, I occasionally think that I did go mad and that I've imagined everything since.
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Christopher Paolini
β
I'm always a bit shy around evil people...
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Craig Ferguson (American on Purpose: The Improbable Adventures of an Unlikely Patriot)
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If you survive until tomorrow, it could mean that either a) you are more likely to be immortal or b) that you are closer to death.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
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Prediction, not narration, is the real test of our understanding of the world.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
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Every day I ran to that book like it was a bottle of whiskey and crawled inside because it was a world that I had at least some control over, and slowly, in time, it began to take shape.
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Craig Ferguson (American on Purpose: The Improbable Adventures of an Unlikely Patriot)
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Love is like a series of improbable, lonely notes landing together in meaningful chaos. Where every channel carries a rhythm that conveys an expression of emotion. It doesn't feel flat or fake or hollow. It's not exaggerated with overtones. The complexity might feel organized, but the creation is never controlled.
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Pam Godwin (Beneath the Burn)
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He splayed a hand out over the photographs, trembling fingers not quite touching the shiny surface, and then he turned and leaned toward me, slowly, with the improbable grace of a tall tree falling. He buried his face in my shoulder and went very quietly and thoroughly to pieces.
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Diana Gabaldon
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If I could believe in myself, why not give other improbabilities the benefit of the doubt? I accepted the idea that an omniscient God had cast me in his own image and that he watched over me and guided me from one place to the next. The virgin birth, the resurrection, and the countless miracles -my heart expanded to encompass all the wonders and possibilities of the universe.
A bell, though, that's fucked up.
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David Sedaris (Me Talk Pretty One Day)
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Believe me, it is tough to deal with the social consequences of the appearance of continuous failure. We are social animals; hell is other people.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
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If you want to get an idea of a friend's temperament, ethics, and personal elegance, you need to look at him under the tests of severe circumstances, not under the regular rosy glow of daily life.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
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Nature is a hanging judge," goes an old saying. Many tragedies come from our physical and cognitive makeup. Our bodies are extraordinarily improbable arrangements of matter, with many ways for things to go wrong and only a few ways for things to go right. We are certain to die, and smart enough to know it. Our minds are adapted to a world that no longer exists, prone to misunderstandings correctable only by arduous education, and condemned to perplexity about the deepest questions we can ascertain.
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Steven Pinker (The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature)
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We are quick to forget that just being alive is an extraordinary piece of good luck, a remote event, a chance occurrence of monstrous proportions.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
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4. Religion. Your reason is now mature enough to examine this object. In the first place, divest yourself of all bias in favor of novelty & singularity of opinion... shake off all the fears & servile prejudices, under which weak minds are servilely crouched. Fix reason firmly in her seat, and call to her tribunal every fact, every opinion. Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blindfolded fear. You will naturally examine first, the religion of your own country. Read the Bible, then as you would read Livy or Tacitus. The facts which are within the ordinary course of nature, you will believe on the authority of the writer, as you do those of the same kind in Livy and Tacitus. The testimony of the writer weighs in their favor, in one scale, and their not being against the laws of nature, does not weigh against them. But those facts in the Bible which contradict the laws of nature, must be examined with more care, and under a variety of faces. Here you must recur to the pretensions of the writer to inspiration from God. Examine upon what evidence his pretensions are founded, and whether that evidence is so strong, as that its falsehood would be more improbable than a change in the laws of nature, in the case he relates. For example in the book of Joshua we are told the sun stood still several hours. Were we to read that fact in Livy or Tacitus we should class it with their showers of blood, speaking of statues, beasts, &c. But it is said that the writer of that book was inspired. Examine therefore candidly what evidence there is of his having been inspired. The pretension is entitled to your inquiry, because millions believe it. On the other hand you are astronomer enough to know how contrary it is to the law of nature that a body revolving on its axis as the earth does, should have stopped, should not by that sudden stoppage have prostrated animals, trees, buildings, and should after a certain time have resumed its revolution, & that without a second general prostration. Is this arrest of the earth's motion, or the evidence which affirms it, most within the law of probabilities? You will next read the New Testament. It is the history of a personage called Jesus. Keep in your eye the opposite pretensions: 1, of those who say he was begotten by God, born of a virgin, suspended & reversed the laws of nature at will, & ascended bodily into heaven; and 2, of those who say he was a man of illegitimate birth, of a benevolent heart, enthusiastic mind, who set out without pretensions to divinity, ended in believing them, and was punished capitally for sedition, by being gibbeted, according to the Roman law, which punished the first commission of that offence by whipping, & the second by exile, or death in fureΓ’.
...Do not be frightened from this inquiry by any fear of its consequences. If it ends in a belief that there is no God, you will find incitements to virtue in the comfort and pleasantness you feel in its exercise, and the love of others which it will procure you... In fine, I repeat, you must lay aside all prejudice on both sides, and neither believe nor reject anything, because any other persons, or description of persons, have rejected or believed it... I forgot to observe, when speaking of the New Testament, that you should read all the histories of Christ, as well of those whom a council of ecclesiastics have decided for us, to be Pseudo-evangelists, as those they named Evangelists. Because these Pseudo-evangelists pretended to inspiration, as much as the others, and you are to judge their pretensions by your own reason, and not by the reason of those ecclesiastics. Most of these are lost...
[Letter to his nephew, Peter Carr, advising him in matters of religion, 1787]
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Thomas Jefferson (Letters of Thomas Jefferson)
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I knew that I had been partially right in the storeroom above the bar on Christmas Day.
Whoever I had become had to die.
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Craig Ferguson (American on Purpose: The Improbable Adventures of an Unlikely Patriot)
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It wasn't by eliminating the impossible that you got at the truth, however improbable; it was by the much harder process of eliminating the possibilities. You worked away, patiently asking questions and looking hard at things. You walked and talked, and in your heart you just hoped like hell that some bugger's nerve'd crack and he'd give himself up.
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Terry Pratchett (Feet of Clay (Discworld, #19; City Watch, #3))
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You need a story to displace a story.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
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People can do great things. However, there are somethings they just can't do. I, for instance, have not been able to transform myself into a Popsicle, despite years of effort. I could, however, make myself insane, if I wished. (Though if I achieved the second, I might be able to make myself think I'd achieved the first....)
Anyway, if there's a lesson to be learned, it's this: great success often depends on being able to distinguish between the impossible and the improbable. Or, in easier terms, distinguishing between Popsicles and insanity.
Any questions?
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Brandon Sanderson (Alcatraz Versus the Evil Librarians (Alcatraz, #1))
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My face set to a grim and determined expression. I speak in all modesty as I say this, but I discovered at that moment that I have a fierce will to live. It's not something evident, in my experience. Some of us give up on life with only a resigned sigh. Others fight a little, then lose hope. Still others - and I am one of those - never give up. We fight and fight and fight. We fight no matter the cost of battle, the losses we take, the improbability of success. We fight to the every end. It's not a question of courage. It's something constitutional, an inability to let go. It may be nothing more than life-hungry stupidity.
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Yann Martel (Life of Pi)
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Who are you, and what are you playing at?β
βNikolai Lantsov, but please donβt make me recite my titles again. Itβs no fun for anybody, and the only important one is βprince.ββ
βAnd what about Sturmhond?β I asked.
βIβm also Sturmhond, commander of the Volkvolny, scourge of the True Sea.β
βScourge?β
βWell, Iβm vexing at the very least.β
I shook my head. βImpossible.β
βImprobable.β
βThis is not the time to try to be entertaining.
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Leigh Bardugo (Siege and Storm (The Shadow and Bone Trilogy, #2))
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This idea that in order to make a decision you need to focus on the consequences (which you can know) rather than the probability (which you canβt know) is the central idea of uncertainty.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
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You can afford to be compassionate, lax, and courteous if, once in a while, when it is least expected of you, but completely justified, you sue someone, or savage an enemy, just to show that you can walk the walk.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
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And yet, in each human coupling, a thousand million sperm vie for a single egg.
Multiply those odds by countless generations, against the odds of your ancestors being alive; meeting; siring this precise son; that exact daughter⦠Until your mother loves a man she has every reason to hate, and of that union, of the thousand million children competing for fertilization, it was you, only you, that emerged. To distill so specific a form from that chaos of improbability, like turning air to gold⦠that is the crowning unlikelihood. The thermo-dynamic miracle.
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Alan Moore (Watchmen)
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The word hope first appeared in English about a thousand years ago, denoting some combination of confidence and desire. But what I desiredβlifeβwas not what I was confident aboutβdeath. When I talked about hope, then, did I really mean βLeave some room for unfounded desire?β No. Medical statistics not only describe numbers such as mean survival, they measure our confidence in our numbers, with tools like confidence levels, confidence intervals, and confidence bounds. So did I mean βLeave some room for a statistically improbable but still plausible outcomeβa survival just above the measured 95 percent confidence interval?β Is that what hope was? Could we divide the curve into existential sections, from βdefeatedβ to βpessimisticβ to βrealisticβ to βhopefulβ to βdelusionalβ? Werenβt the numbers just the numbers? Had we all just given in to the βhopeβ that every patient was above average? It occurred to me that my relationship with statistics changed as soon as I became one.
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Paul Kalanithi (When Breath Becomes Air)
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Fulfillment, Shevek thought, is a function of time. The search for pleasure is circular, repetitive, atemporal, The variety seeking of the spectator, the thrill hunter, the sexually promiscuous, always ends in the same place. It has an end. It comes to the end and has to start over. It is not a journey and return, but a closed cycle, a locked room, a cell.
Outside the locked room is the landscape of time, in which the spirit may, with luck and courage, construct the fragile, makeshift, improbable roads and cities of fidelity: a landscape inhabitable by human beings.
It is not until an act occurs within the landscape of the past and the future that it is a human act. Loyalty, which asserts the continuity of past and future, binding time into a whole, is the root of human strength; there is no good to be done without it.
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Ursula K. Le Guin (The Dispossessed: An Ambiguous Utopia)
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In itself, every idea is neutral, or should be; but man animates ideas, projects his flames and flaws into them; impure, transformed into beliefs, ideas take their place in time, take shape as events: the trajectory is complete, from logic to epilepsy . . . whence the birth of ideologies, doctrines, deadly games.
Idolaters by instinct, we convert the objects of our dreams and our interests into the Unconditional. History is nothing but a procession of false Absolutes, a series of temples raised to pretexts, a degradation of the mind before the Improbable. Even when he turns from religion, man remains subject to it; depleting himself to create fake gods, he feverishly adopts them: his need for fiction, for mythology triumphs over evidence and absurdity alike.
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Emil M. Cioran (A Short History of Decay)
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We grossly overestimate the length of the effect of misfortune on our lives. You think that the loss of your fortune or current position will be devastating, but you are probably wrong. More likely, you will adapt to anything, as you probably did after past misfortunes.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
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Do I, then, belong to the heavens?
Why, if not so, should the heavens
Fix me thus with their ceaseless blue stare,
Luring me on, and my mind, higher
Ever higher, up into the sky,
Drawing me ceaselessly up
To heights far, far above the human?
Why, when balance has been strictly studied
And flight calculated with the best of reason
Till no aberrant element should, by rights, remain-
Why, still, should the lust for ascension
Seem, in itself, so close to madness?
Nothing is that can satify me;
Earthly novelty is too soon dulled;
I am drawn higher and higher, more unstable,
Closer and closer to the sun's effulgence.
Why do these rays of reason destroy me?
Villages below and meandering streams
Grow tolerable as our distance grows.
Why do they plead, approve, lure me
With promise that I may love the human
If only it is seen, thus, from afar-
Although the goal could never have been love,
Nor, had it been, could I ever have
Belonged to the heavens?
I have not envied the bird its freedom
Nor have I longed for the ease of Nature,
Driven by naught save this strange yearning
For the higher, and the closer, to plunge myself
Into the deep sky's blue, so contrary
To all organic joys, so far
From pleasures of superiority
But higher, and higher,
Dazzled, perhaps, by the dizzy incandescence
Of waxen wings.
Or do I then
Belong, after all, to the earth?
Why, if not so, should the earth
Show such swiftness to encompass my fall?
Granting no space to think or feel,
Why did the soft, indolent earth thus
Greet me with the shock of steel plate?
Did the soft earth thus turn to steel
Only to show me my own softness?
That Nature might bring home to me
That to fall, not to fly, is in the order of things,
More natural by far than that improbable passion?
Is the blue of the sky then a dream?
Was it devised by the earth, to which I belonged,
On account of the fleeting, white-hot intoxication
Achieved for a moment by waxen wings?
And did the heavens abet the plan to punish me?
To punish me for not believing in myself
Or for believing too much;
Too earger to know where lay my allegiance
Or vainly assuming that already I knew all;
For wanting to fly off
To the unknown
Or the known:
Both of them a single, blue speck of an idea?
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Yukio Mishima (Sun & Steel)
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Again and again across the centuries, cosmic discoveries have demoted our self-image. Earth was once assumed to be astronomically unique, until astronomers learned that Earth is just another planet orbiting the Sun. Then we presumed the Sun was unique, until we learned that the countless stars of the night sky are suns themselves. Then we presumed our galaxy, the Milky Way, was the entire known universe, until we established that the countless fuzzy things in the sky are other galaxies, dotting the landscape of our known universe.
Today, how easy it is to presume that one universe is all there is. Yet emerging theories of modern cosmology, as well as the continually reaffirmed improbability that anything is unique, require that we remain open to the latest assault on our plea for distinctiveness: multiple universes, otherwise known as the βmultiverse,β in which ours is just one of countless bubbles bursting forth from the fabric of the cosmos.
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Neil deGrasse Tyson (Cosmic Horizons: Astronomy at the Cutting Edge (American Museum of Natural History Book))
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Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the birdβs belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race βlooking out for its best interests,β as a politician would say. On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.*
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
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I donβt run for trains.β Snub your destiny. I have taught myself to resist running to keep on schedule. This may seem a very small piece of advice, but it registered. In refusing to run to catch trains, I have felt the true value of elegance and aesthetics in behavior, a sense of being in control of my time, my schedule, and my life. Missing a train is only painful if you run after it! Likewise, not matching the idea of success others expect from you is only painful if thatβs what you are seeking. You stand above the rat race and the pecking order, not outside of it, if you do so by choice.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
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Neuroscience tells us that it is highly improbable that we have souls, as everything we think and feel is no more or no less than the electrochemical chatter of our nerve cells. Our sense of self, our feelings and our thoughts, our love for others, our hopes and ambitions, our hates and fears all die when our brains die. Many people deeply resent this view of things, which not only deprives us of life after death but also seems to downgrade thought to mere electrochemistry and reduces us to mere automata, to machines. Such people are profoundly mistaken, since what it really does is upgrade matter into something infinitely mysterious that we do not understand. There are one hundred billion nerve cells in our brains. Does each one have a fragment of consciousness within it? How many nerve cells do we require to be conscious or to feel pain? Or does consciousness and thought reside in the electrochemical impulses that join these billions of cells together? Is a snail aware? Does it feel pain when you crush it underfoot? Nobody knows.
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Henry Marsh (Do No Harm: Stories of Life, Death, and Brain Surgery)
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I am most often irritated by those who attack the bishop but somehow fall for the securities analyst--those who exercise their skepticism against religion but not against economists, social scientists, and phony statisticians. Using the confirmation bias, these people will tell you that religion was horrible for mankind by counting deaths from the Inquisition and various religious wars. But they will not show you how many people were killed by nationalism, social science, and political theory under Stalin or during the Vietnam War. Even priests don't go to bishops when they feel ill: their first stop is the doctor's. But we stop by the offices of many pseudoscientists and "experts" without alternative. We no longer believe in papal infallibility; we seem to believe in the infallibility of the Nobel, though....
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
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I propose that if you want a simple step to a higher form of life, as distant from the animal as you can get, then you may have to denarrate, that is, shut down the television set, minimize time spent reading newspapers, ignore the blogs. Train your reasoning abilities to control your decisions; nudge System 1 (the heuristic or experiential system) out of the important ones. Train yourself to spot the difference between the sensational and the empirical. This insulation from the toxicity of the world will have an additional benefit: it will improve your well-being.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)
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I told her that I didn't want to take any drugs. That I had come here not to take drugs.
"Listen," she said, not unkindly, "up until now I would say that ninety-nine percent of all the narcotics you have taken in your life you bought from guys you didn't know, in bathrooms or on street corners, something like that. Correct?"
I nodded.
"Well these guys could have been selling you salt or strychnine. They didn't care. They wanted your money. I don't care about your money, and, unlike your previous suppliers, I went to college to study just the right drugs to give to people like you in order to help you get better. So, bearing all that in mind ... Take the fucking drugs!"
I took the drugs.
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Craig Ferguson (American on Purpose: The Improbable Adventures of an Unlikely Patriot)
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In the matter of reforming things, as distinct from deforming them, there is one plain and simple principle; a principle which will probably be called a paradox. There exists in such a case a certain institution or law; let us say, for the sake of simplicity, a fence or gate erected across a road. The more modern type of reformer goes gaily up to it and says, "I don't see the use of this; let us clear it away." To which the more intelligent type of reformer will do well to answer: "If you don't see the use of it, I certainly won't let you clear it away. Go away and think. Then, when you can come back and tell me that you do see the use of it, I may allow you to destroy it."
This paradox rests on the most elementary common sense. The gate or fence did not grow there. It was not set up by somnambulists who built it in their sleep. It is highly improbable that it was put there by escaped lunatics who were for some reason loose in the street. Some person had some reason for thinking it would be a good thing for somebody. And until we know what the reason was, we really cannot judge whether the reason was reasonable. It is extremely probable that we have overlooked some whole aspect of the question, if something set up by human beings like ourselves seems to be entirely meaningless and mysterious. There are reformers who get over this difficulty by assuming that all their fathers were fools; but if that be so, we can only say that folly appears to be a hereditary disease. But the truth is that nobody has any business to destroy a social institution until he has really seen it as an historical institution. If he knows how it arose, and what purposes it was supposed to serve, he may really be able to say that they were bad purposes, that they have since become bad purposes, or that they are purposes which are no longer served. But if he simply stares at the thing as a senseless monstrosity that has somehow sprung up in his path, it is he and not the traditionalist who is suffering from an illusion.
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G.K. Chesterton