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The real significant shortages were caused by one of the following: 1. Cheapest-To-Deliver (CTD) – A specific security must be delivered to the exchange (CME) to fulfill a futures delivery requirement. If the correct security is not delivered, it’s a very expensive fine. This is a can’t-fail scenario. 2. Gone From The Market – This was the case with the 3.625% 5/15/2013. There was no supply available and deep shorts. 3. Settlement Distortion – During the September 11, 2001, period, the entire settlement system broke down. BONY couldn’t clear securities for days. 4. Flight-To-Quality – End-investors buy-up all of the Treasurys, pack them away in their portfolios, and don’t loan them into the Repo market. These are solid reasons for securities shortages. However, when you take these out, the rest can generally be attributed to the Repo market, assisted by the Repo market, or helped along by the Repo market. A “Repo market squeeze” is a short squeeze that’s orchestrated by someone in the Repo market. The squeezer could be a Primary Dealer, a bank, a broker-dealer, or even a West Coast money manager. The concept is simple: Buy or borrow as much of a Treasury issue as possible and hold that supply out of the market. Don’t loan it to anyone. Then see how low Repo rates go. When the security begins to trade rich in the cash market or term Repo rates decline, sell the position. Or sell as much as possible.
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Scott E.D. Skyrm (The Repo Market, Shorts, Shortages, and Squeezes)